Ukrainian forces have successfully captured 909 Russian military personnel, bolstering their exchange fund amidst ongoing hostilities in the Kursk region. This development comes at a time when the situation in Kursk is described as "very difficult" by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian military operations continue to advance, with reports of significant progress in Russia's southern Kursk territory, highlighting the region's growing role as a potential bargaining lever in diplomatic negotiations.
In recent maneuvers, Ukrainian forces have launched new attacks in the southern part of Kursk, advancing up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, according to the Institute for the Study of War. This marks a notable incursion, as it represents the first time foreign troops have taken control of Russian territory since World War II. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia has lost some 40,000 troops over the six months of fighting in Kursk, with 16,100 of those confirmed dead. However, Ukraine has not officially commented on these figures.
North Korean troops, deployed to Kursk as foot soldiers, have suffered heavy casualties in the conflict, with around 4,000 either killed or injured. These forces have primarily engaged in mass ground assaults but have not seen combat since mid-January, according to South Korean intelligence. This cessation of activity raises questions about their future role in the ongoing conflict.
The deployment of North Korean troops adds another layer to the complex dynamics in Kursk. While Russia has fielded approximately 78,000 troops into the region—several times more than Ukraine—Ukrainian forces have maintained their hold on Russian territory for half a year. Angelica Evans, a military analyst, noted the strategic distraction these Russian forces represent:
“These Russian forces, which include elements of elite units, are tied up and really distracted in Kursk. [Otherwise] they would more than likely be fighting on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine where they could do a lot of damage,” – Evans
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that Kyiv views Kursk as a potential bargaining chip in future diplomatic settlements. He emphasized:
“You will see later, when we reach a diplomatic settlement to end the war, what conditions the Russians will face with regard to the Kursk direction,” – Volodymyr Zelensky
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has also weighed in on the conflict, indicating efforts towards a ceasefire:
“We made a lot of progress on Russia, Ukraine,” – Donald Trump
“We’ll see what happens. We’re going to stop that ridiculous war,” – Donald Trump
Despite these developments, the military activities in Kursk are not expected to cause the collapse of the Russian state. However, they could exert significant pressure on Russia's internal stability. Evans further commented:
“The military activity isn’t going to collapse the Russian state, but the pressures that they’re putting on the Russians are things that could,” – Angelica Evans
This ongoing pressure has impacted Putin's credibility domestically:
“That is something that really hurts Putin’s credibility within Russia, and this vision that he’s created for himself as a defender and stabilizer,” – Angelica Evans
Putin himself acknowledged the difficulties faced in Kursk:
“The situation in Kursk was very difficult,” – Vladimir Putin
The Ukrainian advancement into Russian defenses has surprised many observers:
“To see the Ukrainians able to penetrate Russian defenses, and advance up to five kilometers, that’s something that we don’t see the Russians able to do anywhere in the front line,” – Angelica Evans
Though strategic in nature, the Ukrainian-held areas in Kursk lack inherent value:
“There’s nothing inherently valuable about the actual land that the Ukrainians are holding in Kursk. It’s fields and settlements; they’re not threatening Kursk city or making a run on Moscow,” – Angelica Evans
