Canada remains the largest source of international visitors to the United States, with 20.4 million Canadians crossing the border last year and generating $20.5 billion USD in spending. The significant economic contribution from Canadian travelers primarily benefits states such as Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas. However, looming economic and political uncertainties threaten to alter this dynamic considerably.
A recent downturn in the value of the Canadian dollar, which fell to a 22-year low amid tariff uncertainties, has prompted concern among travelers. Although the currency rebounded slightly on Monday due to speculation about potential tariff reprieves, the impact of this volatility is profound. Some Canadian snowbirds, typically escaping harsh winters in southern states like Florida and Arizona, are opting to remain in Canada or permanently return home.
A survey by Corporate Traveller Canada highlights broader apprehensions among businesses. It found that 85% of small and medium-sized enterprises expect to reduce cross-border travel if tariffs are imposed. The repercussions of these shifts in travel behavior are stark; a 10% reduction in Canadian visitors could lead to $2.1 billion USD in lost spending and 14,000 job losses in the U.S.
The economic implications are significant. In the second quarter of 2024 alone, Canadians injected $6.5 billion CAD (approximately $4.5 billion USD) into the U.S. economy, spending about $685 USD per trip mainly on accommodations, restaurants, and bars. The U.S. Travel Association has warned that any reduction in Canadian travel would result in substantial economic setbacks.
Kristine Geary, founder of Maple Leaf Tours in Kingston, Ontario, reported a 30% decrease in bookings for U.S. travel packages this year. This decline underscores a broader reluctance among Canadians to visit the U.S., driven by political tensions and economic uncertainties.
“The rhetoric about tariffs, the mockery of our prime minister and the musing about us becoming the 51st state, that did it for all of us,” – Dale
Some Canadians are choosing to visit only Democrat-leaning states like California and New York, while others focus their spending on businesses owned by Black, Latino, POC, and LGBTQ+ individuals to support marginalized communities.
“We’re kind of nervous if Canadians are going to be upset with Americans.” – Church
One Canadian family cancelled their planned 10-day road trip to the U.S., citing safety concerns and the moral imperative to keep their spending within Canada.
“Everyone was in agreement that we’re not going. We’re going to keep our money in our own country.” – Dale
“And all of the feelings of the heaviness of the world, it just got to me. It got to both of us.” – Whale
The sentiment among Canadians is echoed by political figures. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has encouraged citizens to support domestic industries and consider vacationing within Canada.
“There are many ways for you to do your part,” – Justin Trudeau
“It might mean checking the labels at the supermarket and picking Canadian-made products. It might mean opting for Canadian rye over Kentucky bourbon or forgoing Florida orange juice altogether. It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.” – Justin Trudeau
For some Canadians, like Tamara Boden, avoiding trips to the U.S. is a matter of principle.
“That’s not going to be how I spend my Saturday for sure. Not for the next four years at least.” – Tamara Boden
