The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has projected a significant 12.4% increase in home sales for 2025, expecting 76,000 properties to change hands across the region. This optimistic forecast comes amid improved affordability driven by lower borrowing costs. Despite a challenging start to the year, with January's home sales dropping by 7.9% compared to the same month last year, the outlook for the real estate market remains positive.
In January, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) recorded 3,847 transactions. The number of new listings surged by 48.6% year-over-year, reaching 12,392. The average selling price in the City of Toronto was $1,040,994, marking a 1.5% increase from January 2024. TRREB anticipates further growth, with the average selling price expected to reach $1,147,000 in 2025—a 2.6% rise compared to last year.
In terms of property types, single-family homes are predicted to experience stronger price growth. However, January saw varied sales performance among different housing categories. Condos registered the largest drop in sales at 12.1%, while detached houses and townhouses saw declines of 8.4% and 4.2%, respectively. In contrast, semi-detached homes experienced a modest increase of 2.9% over the previous year.
First-time buyers are showing significant interest in the market, accounting for 42% of intending homebuyers. Additionally, survey results indicate that 28% of respondents are likely to purchase a home in 2025, while 37% express an interest in selling.
Industry experts highlight the impact of current economic conditions on market behavior.
“A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025,” – Jason Mercer
Despite this optimism, potential challenges remain.
“However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence.” – Jason Mercer
Real estate professionals emphasize the advantages of acting promptly in the current market environment.
“If everybody else is afraid and concerned, you’re better off acting now because now you’re going to get a much better price,” – Davelle Morrison
Morrison advises potential buyers against waiting for ideal conditions.
“If you wait until everything is all great and rosy, then you’re going to be competing with everybody else who was too afraid to act right now, and the prices are just going to get higher and higher.” – Davelle Morrison