In a dramatic turn of events, Bangladesh's Awami League, a political titan since the nation's inception, found itself toppled by a student-led uprising in October 2024. The upheaval resulted in the deaths of at least 834 people and left more than 20,000 others injured, including women and children, as law enforcement officials launched attacks on protesters and bystanders. This significant shift in power saw the interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, banning the party's student wing, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), on October 23, 2024. This article explores the factors that led to the downfall of the Awami League and examines the possibilities of its resurgence.
The Awami League's downfall was not sudden but stemmed from years of hardline policies and authoritarian governance that fueled public discontent. Despite its historical significance and prominent role in Bangladeshi politics, the party dismissed the uprising as a "terrorist uprising," claiming it was orchestrated by forces aiming to instill a "Pakistani ideology." However, this narrative did little to quell the widespread anger. As Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, a political analyst at Jahangirnagar University, noted, "Fanatical measures ultimately hurt Sheikh Hasina's popularity, turning her resignation into a singular demand."
The Awami League's leadership has faced accusations of authoritarianism and brutality. Many within the party have criticized its reliance on intelligence reports for decision-making. A leader of a pro-Awami League doctors' association revealed, "It was a harsh reality that our party became heavily reliant on intelligence reports to make decisions. I found many top leaders unaware of how decisions were made or who were making them."
Grassroots units in Dhaka have been operating with outdated committees, relying on the same members for over a decade. Samiul Bashir, an assistant secretary of the Bangladesh Krishak League, explained, "Committed activists have been sidelined for years. Since 2014, opportunists and family members of local lawmakers have dominated party structures at the grassroots, leading to the catastrophe."
Despite these challenges, many Awami League activists continue to place their faith in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Abdur Rahman, a senior leader and minister in Hasina's government, expressed confidence, stating, "Oh, nothing will happen. The leader [Hasina] will handle everything." However, some activists privately criticize the misuse of power by her family.
The interim government's ban on the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) marks a significant blow to the Awami League's influence over student politics. The decision was part of broader efforts to dismantle structures that contributed to the unrest. AFM Bahauddin Nasim, the Awami League's joint-secretary, accused Islami Chhatra Shibir, the student wing of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), of misleading students under the guise of an anti-quota movement. "We are victims of an international conspiracy; this will be proven soon," Nasim stated.
The path to recovery for the Awami League hinges on key conditions set by the interim government. These include trials for those responsible for atrocities during the July uprising. Riaz, a political analyst at Illinois State University, emphasized that any discussion on the party's comeback can occur only if these conditions are met. "Those directly responsible for the atrocities during the July uprising including Sheikh Hasina must face trials," he asserted.
The potential for participation in upcoming elections offers a glimmer of hope for the Awami League's revival. Al Masud Hasanuzzaman pointed out that participation in elections could create a foothold for the party's return. However, he cautioned that political revival would be challenging without rebuilding public trust through leadership and grassroots connections.
Samiul Bashir has been vocal on social media platforms about internal issues plaguing the party. He criticized the leadership for sidelining committed activists and allowing opportunists to dominate party structures. "This time, however, is different; the party fell to a bloody student-led uprising supported by the military, and Sheikh Hasina's image as a leader is severely tarnished," remarked Hasanuzzaman.
Amidst these challenges, Tanjim Ahmad Sohel Taj, son of Bangladesh's first Prime Minister Tajuddin Ahmad and former state minister for home affairs, called for accountability from the Awami League. "The Awami League must apologise to the people of Bangladesh for the injustices, oppression, corruption, plundering and laundering of billions," he asserted. He highlighted a lack of self-realization or admission of guilt within the party's ranks.
The future of the Awami League depends significantly on its ability to navigate internal divisions and external pressures. As Hasanuzzaman noted, "Without Sheikh Hasina, rebuilding the party will be challenging, and internal divisions are likely." The need for introspection and reform is apparent if the party wishes to regain its footing in Bangladeshi politics.
