The collapse of the al-Assad regime and a weakened Iran have set the stage for potential reform in Lebanon, creating a pivotal moment for the country. Lebanon's new leaders, including President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, are taking steps to leverage this opportunity, promising to ensure Israel's military withdrawal from southern Lebanon and rebuild areas devastated by conflict. The international community has expressed willingness to support these efforts, offering foreign aid and backing to assist Lebanon's transition.
Aoun and Salam have both emphasized the state's intention to monopolize weapons and deploy forces to southern Lebanon, sending a clear message to Hezbollah about the future of its military supremacy. This development marks a shift in Lebanon's political landscape, as the nation grapples with the legacy of Hezbollah's influence and the aftermath of Israel's recent attacks on areas with significant Shia populations, including southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut's suburbs.
"The difference is that, in the past, technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to procrastinate," said Houry.
For the first time in decades, many Lebanese are optimistic about the potential for meaningful reform. The political class seems to recognize the necessity of allowing some changes to occur to address longstanding issues. Despite Hezbollah's weakened position following targeted strikes by Israel, which have significantly impacted the Shia community, Secretary-General Naim Qassem insists on Hezbollah's inclusion in any new government.
"No one can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon as we are a fundamental component of the country’s makeup and its renaissance," stated Naim Qassem.
Hezbollah has attempted to extend an olive branch by supporting Aoun's presidency; however, Salam's nomination has been perceived as a strategic setback for the group. This dynamic illustrates the complexities of Lebanon's entrenched sectarian system, which remains resilient despite ongoing challenges.
"They were never brought in with any legitimacy, which depended on the political class, so they didn’t have the capacity or support to put in place most of their reforms," Houry commented on past reform efforts.
The investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast is set to resume shortly, adding another layer of urgency to Lebanon's political environment. The tragedy highlighted deep systemic issues within the country's governance and infrastructure, sparking public outcry for accountability and reform.
Lebanon stands at a crossroads. The nation's leaders must navigate a delicate balance between inclusion and reform while contending with Hezbollah's insistence on remaining a significant political force. Ziad Majed suggests that Hezbollah may need to redefine its role.
"It will have to accept to be a strong – and it will be strong – Lebanese party like all the others but without ownership of the decision of war and peace," Ziad Majed remarked.
Karim Emile Bitar believes that Salam possesses the acumen to promote inclusivity in forming a government that addresses all constituents' needs.
"He is smart enough to find the appropriate ways to try to be inclusive," Bitar observed.
"I do not think he will try to exclude the Shia constituency from participating in government and state-building, but this is a decision the Shia parties have to make," added Bitar.
