The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, ignited by a severe attack on October 7, has reached a pivotal moment with a new ceasefire agreement. This deal, comprising the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, marks a significant shift in the regional power dynamics. The war, characterized by an unparalleled bombardment campaign in Gaza, has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands more. Despite suffering heavy losses, including the deaths of its top leadership, Hamas continues to assert its presence as a formidable resistance group against Israel.
The ceasefire, set to last 42 days, includes provisions for the exchange of hostages and prisoners and allows for the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. This development has opened the door to further negotiations that could potentially lead to Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza and establish a permanent ceasefire. However, questions linger about the governance of post-war Gaza, as skepticism remains over whether the ceasefire will extend beyond its initial phase.
Hamas initially took around 250 hostages during its attack on Israel, aiming to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. The deal reached with Israel fulfills this goal, with Hamas framing it as a victory for itself and a failure for Israel.
"The day after, is like today, is like the day before…it will be a Palestinian day," said Hamas senior political member Osama Hamdan.
Israel has inflicted significant losses on Hamas throughout this conflict, including the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7 attack. Despite these setbacks, Hamas has managed to recruit nearly as many new militants as it has lost, enabling it to maintain its ranks and continue its armed resistance.
“Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” stated United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The conflict has also left Hamas regionally isolated as its once-strong allies, Hezbollah and Iran, have been significantly weakened. This isolation, coupled with Israel's military campaign, has reduced Hamas to a fraction of its former military and political strength in Gaza. Yet, the movement remains committed to presenting itself as a key player in Palestinian resistance.
The United States has provided guarantees to Israel that should Hamas sabotage the ceasefire deal, Israel can resume its military operations. This assurance aims to safeguard the terms of the agreement and prevent further escalation.
“Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void,” remarked Antony Blinken.
The governance of post-war Gaza remains a pressing issue. While Hamas seems unconcerned about governance roles, suggesting its cadres will partake in rebuilding efforts, uncertainty prevails over who will govern the devastated enclave if the ceasefire agreement progresses.
"The whole population, and the resistance as part of it, will begin rebuilding what the occupation has destroyed," Hamdan emphasized.
Some Israeli figures have expressed skepticism regarding the ceasefire agreement. Far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir criticized the deal's implications:
“When you see … the dancing in Gaza, the celebrations in villages in Judea and Samaria – you understand which side surrendered in this deal.”
The war's impact extends beyond military outcomes, deeply affecting the regional balance of power and reshaping alliances. The intense response by Israel aimed at dismantling Hamas has inadvertently reinforced the movement's position among Palestinians as a critical resistance group.
“It’s a war for survival. Groups like Hamas provide (the Palestinians) with the means of doing that,” observed Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG).
