Russia and Iran are poised to formalize a "comprehensive partnership agreement" following months of meticulous negotiations. This emerging alliance has not only influenced the dynamics on the battlefield in Ukraine but also signifies both nations' commitment to challenging the US-led international order. As Russia accelerates the production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones at a factory in Tatarstan, these drones have become pivotal in Moscow's attritional warfare in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and energy supplies. Meanwhile, Iran is grappling with security concerns over the potential revival of UN sanctions, a vulnerability Russia might use to gain leverage.
The partnership, under discussion for several months, has seen significant strides in recent years. Russia has begun receiving Iranian ballistic missiles, signaling an escalation to Ukraine's allies. Jean-Loup Samaan, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, describes the alliance as "asymmetric," highlighting the evolving power dynamics with Russia now perceived as the dominant partner and Iran as a regional ally.
Russia's advances on Ukraine's eastern front have been bolstered by North Korean soldiers, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. Tehran seeks visible support from Moscow, which Russia appears willing to offer in return for strategic concessions. While the partnership has deepened post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine, pulling Moscow and Tehran closer together, experts remain skeptical about Iran's willingness to acquiesce to Russian demands compared to North Korea's commitment, evidenced by its deployment of approximately 11,000 troops in Russia's Kursk region.
The indigenization of Shahed drone production within Russia marks a shift in operational dynamics, reducing direct Iranian involvement. This move reflects broader strategic adjustments since Russia's military actions in Ukraine began.
"Even when Iran is fighting their wars outside Iran, they are not willing… to sacrifice their soldiers," – Smagin
Russia's strategic positioning in this alliance seems aimed at consolidating power and influence across multiple fronts. By aligning with Iran, Russia strengthens its military capabilities while simultaneously sending a clear message to global powers, particularly the United States.
"I think this is partly intended as a message to the Trump administration that we each have options," – Alterman
This partnership offers Iran tools it can leverage in negotiations with the United States. The relationship provides Iran with strategic options that extend beyond adversarial actions and open avenues for dialogue.
"I think the Iranians are looking for tools they can use with the Americans… and there’s a sense that this gives them something to trade or something to talk about." – Alterman
The collaboration between Russia and Iran has brought them together on Ukraine's battlefields, driven by a common strategic objective to counterbalance American influence.
"That idea of having the United States not just as an adversary but as a strategic objective of all of their foreign policy has brought them together," – Alterman
"It’s brought them together on the battlefields of Ukraine." – Alterman
Iran possesses worrying capabilities, as does Russia, and their willingness to utilize these capabilities poses significant global security concerns.
"The Iranians certainly have some worrying capabilities, the Russians certainly have demonstrated a willingness to use worrying capabilities," – Alterman
Russia's strategic use of Iranian security concerns could potentially shift the balance of power within this partnership. While Russia seems positioned as the larger power broker, Iran remains cautious due to historical distrust towards Russia.
"and when we’re talking about Iran and Russia there is a very big background of distrust from the Iranian side to Russia." – Smagin
